I was reading this article on Toast: Tech’s Forgotten Brands . Reading this article reminded me of few brands that I used in my engineering years. I can not forget that I created my first email id on lycos. We used Lycos, Altavista search engines every day and how no one even remembers today.
Would the same thing happened to Microsoft. Microsoft has been the very successful in last 30 odd years. It is still getting its bread and butter from desktop operating system. It has not come out with any successful new product in last 10 years (Vista is just a replacement for XP – and is it successful!!). Other companies have started eating MS lunch. Google, adobe, Firefox are eating MS’s lunch and MS have not come out with any credible answer. I do not see any growth engines going forward.
So, my question is: Will MS be a stronger brand after 25 years or it will also go the way “Lycos” and “Altavista” have gone?
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Tags: forgotten brands, growth engine, MS
MagCloud (http://magcloud.com/), a child of HP Labs, also started shipping magzines to UK and Canada. This service obviously adds a lot of value to small time writers and editors.
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MagCloud website writes:
MagCloud enables you to publish your own magazines. All you have to do is upload a PDF and we’ll take care of the rest: printing, mailing, subscription management, and more.
How much does it cost?
It costs you nothing to publish a magazine on MagCloud. To buy a magazine costs 20¢ per page, plus shipping. For example, a 20-page magazine would be four bucks plus shipping. And you can make money! You set your issue price and all proceeds above the base price go to you.
How are they printed?
MagCloud uses HP Indigo technology, so every issue is custom-printed when it’s ordered. Printing on demand means no big print runs, which means no pre-publishing expense. Magazines are brilliant full color on 80lb paper with saddle-stitched covers. They look awesome.
What do I need to do to participate?
You’ll need a PayPal account or major credit card to buy magazines, and publishers will need a PayPal account so we can pay you earnings. To create a magazine, you’ll need to upload a PDF, which means you’ll have to create your magazine in a program that outputs high-res PDFs like Adobe® InDesign.
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This might do same thing what electronic media did for news papers. This service will also start a new “outsourcing business” where big outsourcers can manage printing and distribution for smaller magazine owners. This service will also impact big magazine houses such as Media negatively. Niche editors (creative people) can target smaller niche markets and that will reduce subscription for famous magazines. So, this is a risk for big magazine houses. This service lowers barriers to entry in publishing business and increases competition in the space.
Copyright issues will also be a major issue as bigger companies can not check each magazine for compliance and it will weaken the position of big magazine houses. MagCloud will also be a party in this non-compliance. I have not seen any clarity on this issue from HP.
Overall, this will be good for end consumers but will increase issues for publishing houses.
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This post has been inspired by the discussion that I had with Vinayak Agrawal.
World War-II brought down the supremacy of British Empire. Is the current recession an event to mark rise of new world order where United States will not be in a driver’s seat? Or US will not be as powerful as it was in the last 60 years. US was the undisputed leader and super power after the second world war. By dropping the first Atom Bomb on Japan, US showed that she was the military leader. By helping Japan and Western world to come out of destruction after second world war, US showed the morale leadership. US has biggest share in world GDP and is considered to be the richest nation in the world. In last 10 years, US supremacy has been questioned on both these fronts. US has been struggling in Iraq and Afghanistan, the countries, where she started war and there is no morale leadership in today’s world.
Let us go back in the history and see countries who lead the world in GDP. You will see that China and India had the largest share of GDP in the world. This is quite logical if we assume that everyone is endowed with same intellectual capability and everyone has same opportunity. This equilibrium was disturbed with the oncoming of Industrial age in 1600 AD. Western Europe grew much faster than the rest of the world because of their lead in science and industrialization. This was the time when Great Britain made colonies world over because of superior economic and military skills. Pequot war and Kieft’s war also tell the same story when Westerners won over native Americans due to their superior knowledge and military skills. Superior military and knowledge skills brought more wealth to Europe and USA and Europe and USA became richest country in the world. This resulted into unequal wealth distribution in the world.
Britain held the super-power position before second world war. Britain was destroyed in the second world war and USA became the dominant superpower after second world war. USA also became the leader in knowledge capital. This is very well shown by the country’s share of Noble Prize.
This clearly shows that who has been leading the world in knowledge segment. We can go a little further and can see the number of scientists and engineers from these countries. USA will lead over all the other countries in this metrice also. But, slowly world has been going through a change. This change is happening because of following factors:
Democracy: Democracy is sweeping world. Democracy provides opportunity to common man. As government is responsible to people in a democracy so Government has to do things that are good for the people of country. So, slowly, every government is developing knowledge institutions and providing framework where people can make best use of opportunity. As Government has resources to develop these institutions so this change is much faster than any other time in history of man kind.
Communication Infrastructure: Scientific knowledge that provided edge to developing world also provided infrastructure where knowledge can be shared easily and at very low transactions costs. Outsourcing, offshoring are results of communication infrastructure that made them possible.
Capitalism: People want to make best use of resources to earn maximum profits. This has also helped in knowledge dissemination.
As knowledge is disseminating across the world. US and western Europe is losing competitive advantage that was gained because of scientific thinking and knowledge. US and western European countries has to innovate at much faster rate than the dissemination of knowledge to keep up this competitive advantage. As this is not possible in today’s scenrio so world order will change. From a unipolar world, we will move towards multipolar world. I hope that it will be better for human civilization as more number of people will be able to enjoy the fruits of modern civilization.
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As expected, Google announced that it will allow developers to sell applications for its Android cell phone operating system beginning next week in the United States, as the search giant strives to expand in a smartphone arena dominated by Apple Inc. This was expected to effectively compete against Apple in Smart phone market. (Please see my previous blog on Android)
But, I am more surprised by one part of news. “Consumers will buy the forthcoming paid Android applications via the Google Checkout payment product.” I did not expect this from Google. This is a total short sightedness on Google’s part. A company, whose mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful, should not fall so low to get some Dollars. I hope that Google will take back this decision soon.
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Tags: Android, Apple, Applications, google
India : Predictions for 2009
These are my predictions for India in 2009:
1. BJP (with the support of allies) will come to power in Lok Sabha Elections
2. BSE index will hover around 10,000 for most part of the year
3. Tata Nano will be a major hit on Indian streets
4. India-Pakistan relations will not improve but there will be less terrorism incidents in India
5. Kashmir will see peace and new chief-minister, Omar Obdullah, will be face of new politician in India
6. Indian GDP will grow between 6 to 7% in 2009
7. India will gain by current economic slowdown in long term. More work will be offshored to India
8. Indian IT companies will make major acquisitions in 2009
9. Indian Cricket Team will gain numero uno position in One Day Cricket
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Platform leadership is a dream for most of the technology companies. Few companies such as Intel have been able to do be a platform leader in a particular segment of the market. Platform leadership not only helps that particular company to make profits but it makes associated paraphernalia companies to be successful. I am deliberating on a question: Will Android be a successful mobile platform leader? Google came out with Android and hopes that Android will replicate the success enjoyed by Pentium and Windows in PC market in the mobile market.
Google, along with 30 other companies, announced on November 05, 2007 the formation of “open alliance coalition” for the purpose of developing a mobile platform the future. So, Android was announced as a mobile platform even before it came to the market. Google unveiled first Android mobile phone on September 2008 in NY. Android has attracted everybody’s attention because Android is Google’s new product. Google has designed this phone to target advertising in mobile market, which is expected to be much bigger than PC market. There are multiple platforms that are looking to acquire mobile phone market. Few of the important ones are:
Symbian :
iPhone OS:
RIM blackberry:
Windows Mobile:
Linux:
Palm OS:
BREW:
and Android.
Symbian is market leader with 46.6% market share in smart phone market but iphone has been growing by leaps and bounds and may become the leading operating system in this space. Android is next big thing for some analysts. But, can Android become first successful mobile platform.
Any platform requires support from eco-system to be successful in that market. So, when eco-system supports the technology and that product gets mass acceptance then that technology or product can claim to have platform leadership. Clearly, Android is not there today. But, no other product has also not been able to acquire leadership role, so Google can still play and take its chances.
ECO-SYSTEM:
Mobile Platform Eco-System
Android needs to get acceptance from every player in the market. We will get back to eco-system, first let me list down the problem that I see with Android in its present form.
1. As Google started with platform in mind, so competition is already taking strategic and tactical decisions such as Nokia’s action of declaring Symbian as an open platform.
2. Google has unveiled operating system, but who will be in-charge of hardware platform. User experience depends on hardware as well as on software capabilities. One important consideration is form factor of display system. Because display system defines the user experience for different types of content. Keyboards, system memory and camera resolutions are other things that need to be defined and controlled to provide visibility to application developers.
3. Perfectly open source software encourages creativity but it can endanger user experience too. Most of the users are not sophisticated enough to understand the intricacies involved with the application. Mobile phone is also used in emergency situation such as calling hospital in emergency. If uploaded software hangs the system or does not allow user to call in the emergency situation, then, it can create bad publicity and also involve ire of regulatory bodies.
4. Google is putting too much faith on the application developer community to come out with the new applications. But, carrier provider, google, application developer and content providers are the players involved with providing a great user experience. What will be the revenue sharing between all parties? Who will decide each one’s share is not clear?
5. Intel took the leadership in PC architecture and brought innovations such as PCI or USB to extend the total PC market. Can google do that without thinking about “search” everywhere?
6. Google will focus Android on mobile space market or it will try to fit Android into other different markets such as : consumer electronics, automobile, notebook markets. This will make Android’s job tougher and it will lose focus that one requires to be plaform leader in any space.
7. Mobile phones are not only about s/w features. They are also about design, look and feel. That is why i-phone has acquired around 17.3% of smart phone market in such a small time.
8. Android needs mass acceptance. Google needs to push other carriers and mobile phone naufacturers to bring mobile phones with Android. More phones mean more revenue for application developers and content providers and this will attract more application providers and content providers. This works as a positive feedback but if android does not get initial success in next few then android may turn out to be a “bad dream” for google.
To be continued..
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Tags: Android, google, iphone, media, Mobile, symbian
Saas (Software as a Service) model is still not adopted by traditional CIOs of fortune 500 companies. These CIOs are still putting a lot of faith in the enterprise software and are still evaluating initial SaaS companies. CIOs have following concerns about SaaS adoption:
- Data privacy – Where does data reside and who has control?
- Reliability Issue – Is SaaS reliable and robust?
- Competitive Advantage – If everyone has same SaaS then what is my competitive advantage?
Data privacy issues are still relevant and SaaS companies have to be pro-active in showing to customers that they are serious about the data security. But, is it really a big issue? I see senior executives of company walking with their laptops on the airport. Is data much safer in these laptops? I think that data centers of major SaaS companies are much more protected than these laptops. Companies such as Amazon, Google, Force.com etc., have invested Billions of dollar to provide centralized data centers. Most of the SaaS companies will use Google or Amazon cloud computing services to run their applications so security concerns will wane away. These data centers are far more secure than the data centers of most of the big companies.
Reliability has been a big issue. Amazon Webservices went down couple of times last year. This has impacted business and raised questions about reliability of SaaS. Google services were also disrupted in November. But, as Amazon and Google are putting billions of dollar in indrastructure business. So, they will take care of the possible relaibility issues.
For years, enterprise software companies have been selling software to Fortune 500 companies by showing them that software will increase their competitive advantage. SaaS have seen such disruptive growth on the premise that it will reduce the cost. So, SaaS started with the SMB market. But, as SaaS matured and showed that it can deliver value. SaaS is seeing rapid adoption in medium sized companies. Companies do not need to maintain their own servers, they do not need to buy maintenance services and still can use IT applications. This is a big saving for companies. But, if every one is running the same applications then what is the competitive advantage that comes to company A over company B. I would like to answer this question in two parts:
1. SaaS brings fast adoption and you donot need to wait for 18 months to implement and train your employees. By the time, you trained your employees and adopted enterprise software, enterprise software came out with a new version and you are again evaluating new software. So, SaaS in its’ present form offers a big competitive advantage.
2. All the money saved by adopting SaaS can be utililzed in core operations and can be utilized in creating competitive advantage.
I am not arguing that SaaS can not be customized according to your needs. SaaS can also be customized according to your needs and companies such as Salesforce.com are offering million choices of customization.
I think that SaaS is here to stay. SaaS is getting stronger day by day and this trend is also visible by search trend of SaaS on Google.
Google Trend Chart for SaaS Search in last 4 years
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Tags: adoption, Amazon, enterprise, google, SaaS, salesforce, technology
Amidst the cacaphony of launch of Google’s Android phone, I saw a news clip that Google has worked with Amazon to provide a i-tunes like feature (I will call this feature Amazon-tunes so forth) in the Android platform. If first version of Android works without any major technical glitch then Amazon-tunes will provide a tough competition to i-tunes.
I-tunes are only sold through Apple devices. If Android platform becomes successful, then we will see many more mobile companies (Nokia, Motorola, Samsung etc.) manufacturing phones with Android platform. That means many more people will be using Android platform and many more will be downloading songs from Amazon-tunes.
Android is open source platform and it has all the features to go into consumer electronics and automobile applications so that provides Amazon more avenues to sell its Amazon-tunes. One can also move downloaded Amazon-tunes to other devices and this provides an other big advantage to users compared to i-tunes that can only be played on Apple devices.
So Android-Amazon relationship has all the ingredients to hit Apple’s billion dollar i-tunes market.
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Tags: Amazon, Android, Apple, i-tunes
There have been a lot of debate in the past about decoupling theory about emerging and developed economies. Now everyone knows the truth about this theory. I am just going to present some data on this
Here is the comparison chart of BSE vs NASDAQ vs DOW. You can see the trend and take your own decision.
bse-vs-nasdaq-vs-dow (last 1 year)
I will also present some more data on BRIC economies that can help you to take the decision on decoupling theory.
| Countries | India | Brazil | China | Russia |
| Total Export | $150.8 billion f.o.b. (2007 est.) | $160.6 billion f.o.b. (2007 est.) | $1.217 trillion f.o.b. (2007 est.) | $365 billion (2007 est.) |
| Biggest Export partners | US 17%, UAE 8.3%, China 7.7%, UK 4.3% (2006) | US 17.8%, Argentina 8.5%, China 6.1%, Netherlands 4.2%, Germany 4.1% (2006) | US 21%, Hong Kong* 16%, Japan 9.5%, South Korea 4.6%, Germany 4.2% (2006) | Netherlands 12.3%, Italy 8.6%, Germany 8.4%, China 5.4%, Ukraine 5.1%, Turkey 4.9%, Switzerland 4.1% |
| Total Imports | $230.2 billion f.o.b. (2007 est.) | $120.6 billion f.o.b. (2007 est.) | $901.3 billion f.o.b. (2007 est.) | $260.4 billion (2007 est.) |
| Biggest Import partners | China 8.7%, US 6%, Germany 4.6%, Singapore 4.6%, Australia 4% (2006) | US 16.2%, Argentina 8.8%, China 8.7%, Germany 7.1%, Nigeria 4.3%, Japan 4.2% (2006) | Japan 14.6%, South Korea 11.3%, Taiwan 10.9%, US 7.5%, Germany 4.8% (2006) | Germany 13.9%, China 9.7%, Ukraine 7%, Japan 5.9%, South Korea 5.1%, US 4.8%, France 4.4%, Italy 4.3% (2006) |
| Hongkong Export Partners: China 47%, US 15.1%, Japan 4.9% (2006) | ||||
| Data from : CIA World factbook | ||||
I wish that this economic downturn reverses its’ trend soon.
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In the last post, I wrote about factors that will help online education in India. It seems that there has been frenzied activity in online education space in last few months. I will evaluate these websites in this post.
I browsed through google and found following online education websites. This set might not be comprehensive set but should give you an idea about this space. These websites are:
| Website | Business Model | How do they make money | Verdict |
| 24×7guru.com | Provides online assessment platform for students studying from class X to class X. Students can take online diagnostic and assessment test in science and maths and evaluate their progress. Assessment tests understanding of the student about a particular subject. Currently website offers tests for CBSE, ICSE and few state boards. | Website uses a subscription based model where students have to take a subscription to use online assessment platform. Subscription fee for a year is in between Rs. 1000 to Rs. 1500. | A great business model as this does not replace school education but compliments school education. A great idea and I am positive about this website. |
| extramarks.com | Provides online lectures, quizzes, ask an expert and social networks for students. Students can choose one or more options. You can use any service by spending few points. Students can also earn points by answering questions. Syllabus is based on NCERT. | Website sells points and earn money. It also sells online lecture packages. | Pretty complicated website without focus. They tried to build everything from giving online lectures to build social networks.This website will compete with schools, coaching centers and social networks. Social network idea where students can answer questions and earn points might catch up. I am pessimistic about the future of this initiative. |
| Learninghour.com | Provides online tutoring in certain subjects for CBSE, ICSE and few state boards. One can take 12 hourly, 36 hourly packages and yearly packages. Online tutoring lessons are recorded and students can use these lessons later. | Students pay for the hourly packages. For example: 10 tutoring sessions for class X -maths will cost Rs. 3202. | I liked the website. Focus is on online tutoring. They will compete with the schools so if a parent is not satisfied with the school or city does not have good schools then students can take these services. |
| tutorvista.com | I tried tutorvista.co.in but could not get India specific answers | ||
| egurucool.com | Provides online reading material, simulated tests in maths/science for NCERT boards | You have to pay according to the course you pick up. For example: XII- Maths will cost you around Rs. 6067.44 | I am not very enthusiastic about this website as you can download a lot of NCERT content free from World Wide Web. |
I see two main hurdles for online initiatives:
1. Non-availability of computer and broadband internet connection in Indian house-holds barring few metropolitan cities in India. It is ironical that most of the non-metro cities do not have good schools so online initiatives can be a big hit in these cities.
2. Reaction of Schools : Not many schools provide online platform but with companies such as http://www.broadllyne.com/, this is not far when schools like DPS (Delhi Public School) or CMS (City Montessori School) come out with online version as they have all the infrastructure with them
I wish best of luck to all online education initiatives.
Filed under: Education, India | 2 Comments
Tags: India, online education
Recent Entries
- Tech’s forgotten brands – Would MS be one after 25 years??
- MagCloud : Last nail in coffin for organizing publishing media
- Current Recession: Is it the beginning of new world order?
- Google to offer paid mobile phone applications: Why Google Checkout payment??
- India : Predictions for 2009
- Android : Will it be first successful mobile platform leader? – Part 1
- Enterprise to SaaS Adoption ~ Getting Stronger Every Day
- Android Era – Is it beginning of end for i-tunes era
- Decoupling economies : What a debate?
- Indian Online education initiatives
- Middle class and online education in India
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